Base Metal Tips

Hopes have been very futile for bearish sentiments in November. Aluminium has seen sharp recovery on Monday on account of hopes that Greece will be able to avoid bankruptcy and things will move on industrial front in China.

LME three month forward Aluminium prices were driven by these hopes and were up by almost 2 percent in Asian trades. The prices were at $ 1983 per tonne, compared to $ 1948 per tonne.

The rise has been at a time when Aluminium inventories are at all time highs in London Metal Exchange. The total inventories now rule at 5177425 tonnes, up 4% since the beginning of this year.

Indian MCX Aluminium has gained on fact that Rupee now is dragged near 56 against the Dollar. The benchmark Aluminium contract was trading at Rs 110.3 per kg, up 0.8%.

Base Metal Tips

The MCX Silver futures broke above Rs 61000 per kg levels today as a good amount of fresh buying helped the metal amid mostly positive movement in global risky assets. The US dollar slipped as US Congressional leaders met with President Barack Obama on Friday and said they would work to find common ground on taxes and spending. This boosted hopes that the world's largest economy would be successfully able to combat with the looming "fiscal cliff". Gains in other industrial commodities like Copper and Crude oil also boosted the metal. COMEX Silver futures are trading at $32.60, up 2.3 cents or 0.73% on the day.

Silver futures extended a downward run from its highs near $35 per ounce achieved in the first week of October 2012. LME Copper tested its two-month lows and kept Silver in tight ranges. Silver is linked directly to industrial activity and safe haven demand and a drop in copper is normally supposed to have a negative influence on the white metal. The commodity tested its two-month lows near $30 per ounce and closed at $32.37, up nearly 5% on the fortnight. The prices have been locked in a broad range of $30-35 per ounce over last few days and a break on the either side is needed for further direction.

Precious metals consultancy GFMS estimates that industrial demand for silver fell 6% in 2012, driven by weak economic growth in developed countries. Manufacturers continued to find ways to substitute cheaper raw materials in place of silver. Meanwhile, consumers have cut purchases of silverware and shifted away from costly precious metals in their jewelry purchases. The trend was partially offset by rising sales in emerging markets, particularly China, GFMS said. While the industrial demand dropped, silver mine supply rose for the 10th consecutive year in 2012, and is expected to total 797.0 million ounces, up 4.3% from 763.8 million ounces in 2011, according to the consultancy.

The white metal had neared $32.30 per ounce levels earlier in the session but edged up quite impressively thereafter, adding one full dollar during the day. The Asian equities added good gains following a near 1.5% surge in Japanese stocks while the European stocks are also up by nearly 1%. MCX Silver futures are trading at Rs 61038, up Rs 168 or 0.26% on the day. The open interest in the counter is up nearly 4% - indicating fresh buying.

Base Metal Tips

LME base metals managed to move up and maintain the trend after China's CPI rose at a slower-than-expected pace in October. Chinese economic indicators are closely tracked by the market for signs of future demand as the country remains the biggest consumer of industrial metals.
China National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday that China's consumer price index (CPI), the main gauge of inflation, grew 1.7 percent year on year in October. The inflation growth rate came at the slowest pace since January 2010. Consumer Price Inflation fell unexpectedly to negative 0.1 percent in October compared to 0.3 percent in the month of September.
On Thursday, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis said that the U.S. trade deficit narrowed to a seasonally adjusted $ 41.5 billion in September from a deficit of $ 43.8 billion in August. Meanwhile, jobless claims declined during the week ending 3 November 2012. The U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits fell by 8000 to a seasonally adjusted 355000.
The European Central Bank (ECB) decided on Thursday to leave interest rates unchanged and said it was ready to start its new bond-buying plan. Speaking on the occasion ECB President Mario Draghi said, Inflation expectations for the euro area remain firmly anchored in line with our aim of maintaining inflation rates below, but close to 2 percent over the medium term.
ECB announced the Eurosystem was going to introduce second series of euro banknotes, named Europa series. The new banknotes will be introduced gradually over several years, starting with the 5 euros banknote in May 2013.
LME Copper was trading at $ 7691 per tonne on Friday, up $ 83 per tonne from a day before. MCX Copper managed to pull some gains in choppy trades ending at Rs 416.8 per kg, up 0.4 percent. The metal tested a high of Rs 417.7 per kg and a low of Rs 413.4 per kg.
Lead continued to maintain a premium on cash prices of $ 9 per tonne and was relaxed at $ 2208 per tonne, up $ 25 per tonne from last night close. MCX Lead was up by 1.77% to Rs 121.2 per kg. Lead tested a high of Rs 121.3 per kg, and a low of Rs 118.4 per kg.
LME Aluminium was trading at $ 1925 per tonne, up $ 5 per tonne. MCX Aluminium ended at Rs 104.3 per kg, down 0.10 percent.

Base Metal Tips (Aluminium)

Aluminium three month forward prices have declined by 7.6 percent in 2012 so far. Lower demand from Europe, US, China and Japan coupled with rising production and inventories has forced metal to stay on a slope. The LME inventories have seen an increase of 2 percent since the beginning of 2012. In Shanghai, Aluminium stocks in warehouses have seen a jump 100 percent jump from 221624 tonnes in January 2012 to 445242 tonnes in October 2012.
LME Aluminium declined to $ 1911 per tonne in October from $ 2068 per tonne at the beginning of this year. Financing deals in Aluminium didn't let the metal decline too much in London Exchange earlier in this year. Indian Aluminium futures have seen a decline of 4 percent in its value. The fall was much lower compared to international exchange due to choppiness in Dollar against the Rupee.

Base Metal Tips

China PMI data has not been able to move industrial metals in a profit zone on Thursday. The data increased less than expected but was still above the all crucial 50 mark. China Logistics Information Center said that Chinese Manufacturing PMI rose to an annual rate of 50.20 in the month of October, from 49.80 in the preceding month.

LME three month Copper was at $ 7791 per tonne on Thursday, down $ 30 per tonne. The expectations that the Chinese data will bring some respite from selling in metals faded. In Shanghai, gains in Copper February contract were limited to 120 yuan per tonne at 56860 yuan per tonne. MCX Copper moved beyond Rs 420 mark yesterday and ended at Rs 419.7 per kg, down 0.35%. The metal tested a high of Rs 425.3 per kg and a low of Rs 419.4 per kg.

In other metals, Nickel three month forward was down by $ 10 per tonne, at $ 16260 per tonne. From last year comfortable position at $ 28000 per tonne, the metal has moved sharply lower on expectations of increased production and lower demand from stainless steel makers. MCX Nickel managed marginal uptick of 0.36% to close at Rs 878 per kg. China MIIT data showed 45 percent of the country's steel companies were suffering losses in the first nine months of 2012.

Euro has been firming up against the Dollar on expectations of more policy action by European makers for Greece. The Dollar was at 1.2963 against the Euro, down 11 pips. The policymakers in Europe were likely to give Greece more time to meet the austerity measures. Meanwhile, Greece was on the edge to become insolvent if the deal with creditors didn't move forward.

Base Metal Tips ( Weekly Report )

World economy remained a major worry for metal with prices of Copper performing quite remorsefully. LME Copper three month forwards closed trading at $ 7765 per tonne on Friday, as against $ 7812 per tonne at the beginning of the week. The prices tested a seven week low in London this week. In another news, International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said that world refined Copper markets were in production deficit in the month of Jan-July 2012. The refined copper balance for the first seven month of 2012, including revisions to data previously presented, indicates a production deficit of 524000 tonnes.

The total Copper market deficit stood at 23000 tonnes in the month of July. In the first seven months of 2012, world apparent usage grew by 6.2%, at 11.97 million tonnes compared with that in the same period of 2011. World refined production increased by 2.2% to 11.44 million tonnes in the first seven months of 2012 compared with refined production of 11.2 million tonnes in the same period of 2011.

MCX Copper Updates ( Base Metal )

MCX Copper futures tumbled further during the afternoontrades, extending a weak start today as dollar rallied and global pricesdropped. The LME Copper futures tumbled under $7900 per tonne amid economic worries and a bout of strength in US dollar. European stocks dropped heavily following Standard & Poor's decision to cut the credit ratings of five Spanish regions as well as an earnings warning from US chemicals giant DuPont. LME Copper trades at $7856 per tonne, down $86 per tonne on the day.

The Spanish economy contracted by 0.4% in the third quarter of 2012 amid challenging economic conditions and persistent government austerity measures, according to a latest report from the Bank of Spain today. The contractionary course on which the Spanish economy had embarked a year earlier continued in the central months of the year, in a setting marked by financial conditions that were adverse though somewhat slacker than in the previous quarter, the bank noted.

Data out yesterday in Asia showed that the Japanese exports tumbled by 10.3% in the year to September, recording a drop for fourth consecutive month. This was the biggest drop in the measure for nearly 18 months. This hurt the sentiments on worries that the global economy is extending its weak run and demand for copper might slow in near term. In a continued spree of depressing news for world economy, the German central bank stated that there are increasing signs that a perceptible expansion of economic growth in the third quarter of 2012 will be followed by stagnation or even a slight decrease in gross domestic product in the final quarter of the year.

US Dollar rose to a one week high following the Spanish economic worries amid an overall bearish undertone in risky assets. The currency quotes just above 1.3000 levels against the Euro right now. All the commodities like gold and crude have tumbled by more than 1% and a similar undertone prevails in European stocks too. MCX Copper futures had slipped under Rs 430 levels yesterday and traded negatively right from the start today. The commodity quotes at Rs 426.60, down Rs 3.40 per kg or 0.56% on the day with 4.83% increase in the open interest.

Base Metal Copper News

MCX Copper nov futures are quote slightly lower at present, tracking the weak worldwide cues as the equity stock markets about the world gave up some of their latest gain amid doubts over global economy and profit selling ahead of the weekends. A technology stock, particularly Google was hit hard yesterday after a poor earnings outcome for the September quarter and the undertone in Asia and Europe turned mostly bearish today. Euro also dropped for a second day and LME Copper futures are quoting at $8114, down nearly 90 dollars per tonne on the day or 1.06%.

The Euro dropped yesterday as traders eyed the newest European assembly summit. The meeting wrapped up the instance meeting Thursday night and said it has set a closing date of Jan. 1 to agree on a governmental framework for a single decision-making mechanism. The single currency extended losses from a one month high of 1.3140 against the US Dollar and quotation marks around 1.3050 right now.

Copper nov had witnessed a flat session yesterday after Chinese market grow at its weakest pace in around three years. The red metal tanked through $8200 per tone today, as a failure to hold on above the mark hurt the sentiment. London Metal Exchange Copper nov inventories witnessed a big fall of 4250 tonnes today. The inventories are at 220900 tonnes right away.

This draw in inventories may possibly hold the commodity in case the prices fall further. Traders would be eying development European committee meeting on its second and last day. MCX Copper futures for November are trading at Rs 440.85 per kg, down Rs 2.20 per kg on the today. The counter has witnessed a 1% rise in the open interest. Prices could ease towards Rs 439 levels during the route of the session.

Lead Updates

Lead Updates :-

World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) said that lead market was in surplus by 17200 tonnes in January to August 2012, which follows a surplus of 2600 tonnes recorded in the whole of 2011. Total stocks at the end of August were 54600 tonnes lower than at the end of 2011. Lead mine production was 3.59 million tonnes, which was 23 percent above the total recorded for the first eight months of 2011. The jump in production of concentrates is largely due to abnormally low Chinese output in January and February 2011.

Refined production from both primary and secondary sources was 6.86 million tonnes. Global production rose by 1 per cent and demand was 56000 tonnes higher. Apparent consumption in China totalled 3.08 million tonnes of lead in January to August 2012 which was 109000 tonnes above the comparable period in 2011 and represented 45 percent of the global total. In August 2012, refined lead production was 942900 tonnes and consumption was 952000 tonnes.

Base Metal Weekly Report

Non ferrous metals were trading on a weak note on expectations of dejection from Chinese trade data due to be released on Saturday. The inflation numbers from China will be released on Monday next week. Many investors still opted to stay on the sidelines before the Chinese trade data. China is a major consumer of metals in the world therefore caution before the trade data is quite high.

Today, Shanghai weekly inventory of Copper increased by 18967 metric tonnes or 11.7% to 181514 metric tonnes on 12 October 2012. London Copper inventories declined marginally by 3630 tonnes on Friday to 215900 metric tonnes. LME Copper three month forwards were trading at $ 8164 per tonne, as against $ 8212 per tonne on Thursday.

Refined Copper production is likely to increase by only 1.5% to 19.95 million tonnes in 2012 compared to 20 million tonnes in the previous year. ICSG expects world apparent refined usage in 2012 to grow by 2.6% from that in 2011 to 20.4 million tonnes.

MCX Copper November expiry declined in the weekend trading at Rs 435.8 per kg, up 0.4%. The prices tested a high of Rs 437.7 per kg. Resistances for the contract are at Rs 441 and 443 per kg. supports for the contract is at Rs 432 per kg.

London Aluminium was at one month low as it slipped to $ 2003 per tonne on Friday. The metal settled at $ 2019 per tonne after the day's low. MCX Aluminium performed the worst among metals trading at Rs 105 per kg and bearing losses of 0.61%. This week, mining major Alcoa has moderated its 2012 global aluminum demand forecast to 6%, down from 7%.

Base Metal Updates

The inventories of Copper in China continued to move higher as the prices of London Metal was chopped by profit booking and fears of lower GDP growth in the country. China inventories of Copper showed a sharp jump for the week ending 12 October 2012. Shanghai weekly inventory of Copper increased by 18967 metric tonnes or 11.7% to 181514 metric tonnes on 12 October 2012.This was much more on the expected lines as China is trying hard to increase its local currency versus the Dollar in an attempt to ease inflation in commodities and sourcing it at a cheaper rate.

Meanwhile, ICSG predicted a deficit in Copper for 2012 but said that the rising world supplies and ramp up of production will result in the metal turning into a surplus next year. A supply deficit of 400000 tonnes is estimated in Copper in 2012. International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that the worries of global financial instability were higher due to ongoing European crisis. Higher borrowing costs and declining market confidence was worrisome. This created pressure on the metals during the week.

World Bank slashed its forecast for Asia Pacific economies to 7.2% from earlier forecast of 7.6%. China forecast has been cut to 7.7% this year compared to 8.2% in earlier forecast of May.